2013. március 4., hétfő

Bartholy et al. (2012) Applied Ecology and Environmental Research

Bartholy, J., Pongrácz, R., Nagy, J., Pieczka, I., Hufnagel, L. (2012): Regional climate change impacts on wild animals’ living territory in Central Europe. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research 10(2): 107-120.

In this paper the projected future impact of climate change has been analyzed for the quality of living conditions of the European terrestrial vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) in the Carpathian Basin. According to the climate scenarios, warmer and drier climatic conditions are likely to occur in the Carpathian Basin by end of this century. Simultaneous analysis of climate parameters, climate simulations and animal range datasets enables us to evaluate the vulnerability of different European species to regional warming and climate change. The spatial climate analogy technique is used to analyze the estimated rapid change of the wild animals’ habitats and their northward migration. For the reference climate data of Debrecen is considered, and three spatial analogue regions are compared. The results suggest that generally a significant decline in habitats is very likely for most of the analyzed animal groups by the end of the 21st century. The largest rate of decline is estimated for birds. However, living conditions for reptiles may improve in the future due to the warmer and drier climatic conditions, which are favourable for these species.

spatial analogy, climate change, vertebrates species, ecology, area dynamics

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