Abstract
When examining the ecological effects of climate change those databases which contain monitoring results of long-term time series have a key role. We used the daily Lepidoptera data of the Hungarian Plant Protection and Forestry Light Trap Network between 1962 and 2006 to analyse the influence of the change of temperature on the ecological dynamics of Lepidoptera. Using the quantile regression analyses we concluded that in the examined period, for the total number of individuals, seasonal phenomena shifted forward, however the days with higher diversity occurred over a shorter period. The analysis of the heat sums shows that the spring warming started earlier, although, at the same time the low quantiles of the captured Lepidoptera occurred at lower and lower heat sums over the years, while the heat sums at which the high quantiles of the number of Lepidoptera occurred showed a steady increase, meaning that the active period of the Lepidoptera community has expanded. A strong correlation was observed between diversity and temperature.
When examining the ecological effects of climate change those databases which contain monitoring results of long-term time series have a key role. We used the daily Lepidoptera data of the Hungarian Plant Protection and Forestry Light Trap Network between 1962 and 2006 to analyse the influence of the change of temperature on the ecological dynamics of Lepidoptera. Using the quantile regression analyses we concluded that in the examined period, for the total number of individuals, seasonal phenomena shifted forward, however the days with higher diversity occurred over a shorter period. The analysis of the heat sums shows that the spring warming started earlier, although, at the same time the low quantiles of the captured Lepidoptera occurred at lower and lower heat sums over the years, while the heat sums at which the high quantiles of the number of Lepidoptera occurred showed a steady increase, meaning that the active period of the Lepidoptera community has expanded. A strong correlation was observed between diversity and temperature.
Keywords
biodiversity, quantile regression, climate change, Lepidoptera, light trap
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